10-1-07. We begin the month of October with another beautiful fall day, and a continuation of the fall real estate season. As mentioned above, 2007 appears to be coming in with activity a bit less than 2006, or indeed, 2005, but all things considered, an active year with at this point, a little less activity than 2006. With all the national press about the housing industry it is no wonder. Our listings do appear to be taking more time to find a buyer, but in general, sellers in our silicon valley marketplace don't have as much to complain about as sellers elsewhere.

9-24-07. While the fall season officially started a few days ago, our real estate fall season that essentially begins after Labor Day is approaching a month in duration. Usually quite active, it appears to be starting out a bit less so this year. A few new listings have come on the market and then sold quickly, but more than a few have been on the market for a number of weeks - even months. My guess is that the relative lack of activity is as much a function of "sub-prime media attention/jumbo interest rate increase", as the prices of the listings. Price decreases are not occuring as one might expect.

9-17-07. Those of you that read the San Francisco Chronicle no doubt read the article in last Friday's Business Section entitled, "Home Sales in Bay Area plunge to 15-year low." It prompts yet another comment about our "micro, or 9 digit micro market association with the Eichler home. As the article went on to say, August sales - units of course - were down 25% from last year in the 9 county area, but as you read further, the decrease in that time period for Santa Clara and San Mateo counties was about 15%. "Eichler wise", the numbers are even better. If you look at the 6 month data on the Eichler Market Data page - a longer and more accurate gauge - you'll see that at the moment, the number of Eichler sold for the last 6 month period is about 9/10% less than last year. That number may become even less by the end of the month.

9-10-07. The new listings are occuring pretty much on schedule, and it would appear that the peak number of new listings that will occur this year, will be much the same as last year, i.e., around 130. Interesting isn't it - at least for me - given all the attention, usually negative, about real estate in general. Again, we live in a marvelously blessed area of the planet - for many obvious reasons including the real estate market!

9-4-07. Labor Day has come and gone. "Let the games..." , and the fall real estate season begin!

8-27-07. We're winding up the month of August - the summer real estate "season" - by perhaps getting a head-start into a busier fall season. The listings scooted up last week to 18, by about twice the number of new listings to sales - the standard way in which the number of listings increase. We'll soon see if the fall season begins to chip away at the days on the market average by having some of those older listings finally sell.

8-20-07. The "lazy days of summer" may be coming to an end. Significant sales activity last week accompanied all the press about the sub-prime mortgage fiasco. We, the silicon valley Eichler markeplace that is, seem to be absorbing all that news very nicely, with few if any problems in that specific - mortgage - area.

I had a delightful exchange of emails last week with Kenneth Harney, the national real estate columnist. (See last weeks commentary.) Even though he is rather familiar with our bay area real estate market, he still couldn't get over the minimal "Days on the Market", and the persistence of multiple offers / "list plus" sales prices. As often mentioned, we are indeed very fortunate around here!

8-13-07. Those of you that read articles written by Kenneth Harney, a nationally syndicated real estate columnist in Washington, D.C., whose articles appear in the Mercury News and the S F Chronicle, probably found his commentary this weekend about "oasis micromarkets" a familiar observation - one I've been writing about a long time. It was nice to see those sentiments discussed by a nationally known chap, rather than from "yours truly" - a voice in the Western wilderness. I'm going to email him to suggest that even a better way to describe those "oasis micromarkets" is to use the 9 digit zip codes, rather than the common 5 digit codes. You heard it here first!

Little new to report this Monday - the lazy summer days continue.

8-6-07. Some warm weather brought some homebuyers out last week, and the values were noted. Some of the more recent listings came and went, and since we're now in the last month of summer, perhaps the beginning of the busier fall season is really going to happen. A quick, brief look at the Eichler Market Data page indicates just how our silicon valley Eichler marketplace flys in the face of regional or national statistics. For example, if you just look at some recent sales activity in Sunnyvale and Palo Alto, the last 10 sales to close in Sunnyvale, closed, on average, at a sales price 7.4% above the usually healthy list price. And in Palo Alto, the last 10 sales to close there, closed, again on average, at a sales price 8.3% above the list price. Homebuyers for those areas visiting this website should at least keep those numbers in mind.

7-30-07. The hazy, lazy days of summer continue in the Eichler real estate market. And, it may lead into what will hopefully become a more "normal" market come the Labor Day usual upturn in activity. "Normal", i.e., a market without frenetic activity and jillions of multiple offers - we'll see. The Days on the Market of the current listings do reflect that direction. The average "DOM" of the current listings is now 34 days. If you exclude the 4 listings that have been on 7 days or less, the DOM increases to 48 days. During "normal" times, the average new listing is usually taken for 90 days, for it was not unusual to take about that much time to find the willing buyer and seller. Maybe, just maybe - - - -!

7-23-07. Taking a bit of time off during this slow time, but thanks to "the web", I'm always able to keep you up to date with listings and sales. See 'ya.

7-16-07. Another rather lackluster week in the real estate business. When I visit for the first time with prospective buyers I usually go over the seasonal aspects of our silicon valley market. And when I mention that the summer is the second slowest time for new listings and sales, it is often a surprise. Well, I think the past few weeks again substantiates what always happens around here.

7-9-07. Nothing of any significance to pass on this week, in particular after the July 4th slowdown. We did reach the 100 transaction mark on the rolling 6 month list of the Eichler Market Data page, however 'tis a warm, sleepy time at the moment around here.

7-2-07. We begin one of the normally slow months of the year with one of the slowest weeks - the July 4th week / weekend. I don't expect to see much happening this week. With only a couple of exceptions, the homes on the market have been there for around a month or more, which could mean they'll be around longer, given the time of year. While I thought we may reach the 100 or more mark of the rolling 6 inventory, we didn't - "close but no cigar!" Have a pleasant July 4th holiday!

6-25-07. When updating the Eichler Market Data page this weekend it was interesting to see the number of active listings for this 6 month period grow rather a bit more than usual. We're inching towards 100 now, and if there is much listing activity this week, it should surpass that. The inventory at the moment is quite illustrative of a good cross-section of Eichler homes. Prices range from the $600K's to almost $2.0 million - a commentary on location for sure - and conditions ranging from an acknowledged "As-Is, needs help" to beautifully and tastefully updated homes. It will be interesting to see if the inventory number begins to maintain this higher level.

6-18-07. A pretty good week for home sellers last week with 9 homes going under contract. Not so good for home buyers for only 2 new listings appeared, both in Sunnyvale. As I was updating the Eichler Market Data page on the weekend, it looks like 2007 will be a "slower" year for Eichler sales than either 2005 or 2006. If September still retains the "peak month" for 2007 (look at the above "rolling 6 comment", it would appear that the numbers will be less, once again. And once again, Eichler sales activity will simply be following the broader market.

6-11-07. Well, we're a couple of weeks into that "sensing" a little change in the market, and I'll stay with that feeling. I think it very likely the typical "summertime pause", even though the print media is now beginning to comment on the "slowdown." Interesting article in the S F Chronicle today - "Buyer's hesitate as sellers drop prices, wait" as they comment on the bay area marketplace. As is often the case, the silicon valley Eichler home enthusiast may not benefit as much as others, for as the article indicates, "It is a bifurcated market, with continued brisk sales of homes in desirable neighborhoods, especially in the $750,000 and up range." With rare exceptions, that describes our market.

6-4-07. Interesting. While one week does not provide enough data to base opinions, I can't help but sense a little change in the market. I just updated the Eichler Market Data page, and for the first time in many weeks - even months - there was a notable jump in the number of listings on my rolling 6 month basis, all reflecting fewer sales and more new listings during that period - all of a sudden. Well, summer is usually slower than the spring, so we'll see if this early feel of the market pans out to be real or not - in a few weeks. Home buyers would love to see that happen!

5-29-07. Memorial Day has come and gone, and we've now entered the un-offical beginning of summer, and the unofficial beginning of a slower real estate season. It's hard to believe that it will become much slower than the past few weeks but time will tell. The problem remains the same - fewer folks that wish to sell their Eichler, and more folks that are waiting for them to come on the market. It's a difficult market to try to figure out.

5-14-07. I think this may be a record. Of the 8 current listings today, only 2 are in Santa Clara County. Two! One in Sunnyvale and one in Palo Alto. The remainder are in San Mateo County - Foster City, San Mateo and Burlingame. That pretty well explains the "whys & wherefores" of the current market. Any changes in sight? None are visible to me.

5-7-07. The "quasi-active" note of activity of a week or so ago, certainly continued last week, with listings coming, some going quickly, and yes, some listing activity in San Jose for a change. It's about time!

Those of you interested in "numbers" are hopefully visiting my Market Data page of this site periodically. I update it once a week, on the weekend, and while doing so this past weekend, the picture or trend that these numbers paint tell an interesting story, a story that - once again - the newspapers tend not to tell. For example, in the "universe" of Eichler home sales activity that I cover, there have been 33 sales closed during these past 4 month of 2007. The bulk of them - 17 - occured in Palo Alto (not surprising), and of the 17, 16 sold at prices above list price - as much as 44% above list price! The area with the 2nd most active level of activity, Sunnyvale, (again, not surprising) had 6 sales, with 3 selling above list price, not by 40+ percent, but as much as 10%. The numbers now get a bit too small to determine trends, however, of the 3 sales occuring in the San Mateo Highlands, all three sold above list prices - around the 10% level.

The moral of the story - again - is that real estate is local - very local - and while national news about the subject can be interesting, don't base purchase or sale decisions on that news.

4-30-07. We are finishing up April on a quasi-active note - less than normal Aprils, but certainly more active than March - so perhaps that portends a more active May. Let's hope so. It's interestihg that the listing "wave" seems to have hit Sunnyvale the last week or so. Maybe the same wave will be traveling a bit further south, so thatSan Jose will have several come onto the market soon. Those of you that have targeted that area should visit here frequently!

4-23-07. Well the week was, as hoped, more active than prior weeks this spring. There were 5 new listings making their debut last week, and 6 sales occured during that period of time. At least we are staying around that 10 to a dozen number as the spring continues and hopefully, warm weather sets in. Those of you that may be more interested in the the San Jose or Cupertino Eichler enclaves, have been experiencing a time of virtually no listing activity. There have only been 2 listings/sales in each of those areas since the year began. I suppose statistics would say that we therefore are due to see more activity in those areas. Let's hope so!

4-16-07. It appeared that spring had really begin to "sprung" last week with several new listings, principally in Palo Alto. We'll hope that continues this week so that home buyers will have a bit more from which to choose.

4-9-07. Yesterday's S. F. Chronicle's Real Estate Section carried an article entitled "Bloom & Gloom", with the sub-head, "Spring has sprung, but home prices are expected to blossom in only a few parts of the region - generally west of the bay - as inventory remains low and sales number stay slack." Indeed so! As the article further goes on to say, sales are brisk in places like Palo Alto and Saratoga - silicon valley - in part because there are so few listings, compared to last year, and frankly, about any year that I can recall. Our Eichler home sellers are truly benefiting from the basic supply / demand law of economics. What's puzzleing is that relatively few sellers are taking advantage of that!

4-2-07. A very interesting time in our marketplace. Those of you that visit this site daily saw the inventory fall to a record low of 3 Eichlers last Friday. Some activity over the weekend made that increase to 4 today, but still, those numbers are record setting. It once again prompts me to comment on the local, very local nature of our silicon valley Eichler marketplace. I receive real estate statistics from various local sources, and last Friday received the "Housing Inventory Snapshot" of Northern California counties. Average Days on the Market in March for Single Family Homes in Santa Clara County priced under $1.0 million were 52, and for those over $1.0 million, 69. San Mateo County numbers were slightly less for March - 49 and 56. I ran the Eichler home sales "Days on the Market" numbers for March - last month - and that number for the 15 homes that sold in March was 9, yes, 9. What more can I say!

3-26-07. A couple of home sellers tried to help our inventory situation last week, so we at least begin the week with 9 homes on the market, versus the 4 or 5 that I've been accustomed to reporting. At least a step forward. If these new listings stay around a bit longer than "spring usual" - around a week - and we see a few more new ones posted, that will be a positive sign for folks looking for their Eichler home.

3-19-07. Much hoopla about about "sub prime" mortages in the national media and columns, but it seems another example of "like politics, real estate is very local", for silicon valley appears less troubled by that phenomenon. The profile and demographics of a typical Eichler home buyer in their part of the market may have something to do with that as well. I've been asked at times what I mean, in the above context for example, when I say "local." I think the best way to describe or define that is to say "a 9 digit zip code." It could even be more refined in certain areas, but for the most part 9 digits, i.e., 94306-xxxx, or 94087-xxxx - a 9 digit zip code is as close as it gets to "real estate local."

3-12-07. Perhaps the beginning of some warmer weather will persuade upcoming home sellers to get going, for the time seems all but perfect to place properties on the market. As you can see, we are having a dificult time increasing the inventory beyond 5 to 10 homes, for as soon as they come one, they go within a week or so. Of course there are always the few that stay around much longer, usually because of price/value, but that seems always to be the case in this business.

3-5-07.Whada'ya know - we gained a couple of new listings from a week ago, and we're now up to 8, at least for a couple of days. It's been an interesting year thus far in Eichlerdom, with the majority of Eichler sales occuring in the more expensive areas, essentially Palo Alto and north of there. Palo Alto contains about 40% of the homes in my area of silicon valley, and since January 1, about 70% of the Eichlers sold have been in Palo Alto or north of there. We'll see what happens during the next couple of months, but my guess is that we'll see more "southern" Eichlers come onto the market.

2-26-07. Folks this is getting to be a bit ridiculous. A single digit number of listings early in the year is not unexpected or unusual, but it is unusual to get down to the current level - 4 - and remain at this level for as long as it has. Some of my comments or observations in my recent weekly "Summararies" about a "thin" inventory are indeed proving to be pretty accurate. For the sake of a lot of home buyers out there, I wish they weren't!

2-19-07. On January 2 of this year I thought this spring might be a "barn-burner." Well - no "barn-burner as yet, but a couple of weeks after the Super Bowl does not a market make! The market remains quite balanced, as we have about the same number of listings occuring as sales - last week 3 new listings, and 3 new sales.

Yesterday's Real Estate Section of the San Francisco Chronicle carried a "cover page" article - "Keeping up with the Benjamins" by a Craig Venezia, that is worth your time, in particular if you are considering the purchase of a home in silicon valley. Among other cogent observations, he offers a commentary on a subject that I have discussed with my home buying clients for many years - "Appreciation far outpaces income. That's why only 12% of the Bay area can afford to buy a home." So true! Usually the secret for a first time silicon valley home buyer is simply to enter the market and buy a home. It very likely will not be the home you've been thinking about. It very likely will cost several times more than a similar or larger home you have seen elsewhere - outside silicon valley. But - it will enable you to enter a real estate market that appreciates more than incomes normally do, and help you get started to ultimately acquire the home that you indeed have been waiting for. It's not easy to do the first time, but believe me, it has always paid off in our valley.

2-12-07. Well - - the Super Bowl is indeed over, and the games are getting off to a slow start! While you don't exactly expect the flood gates to open with new listings, you do expect more than 1 or 2 new ones to begin the spring season. Home buyers are certainly out there hoping for an inventory from which to choose, and interest rates are still at an attractive level. We just need some folks to bite the bullet, and do it!

2-5-07. The Super Bowl is over - let the real estate games begin. Wow! The number of active listings have hit a very low number - 4. When the listings begin to appear- as they will -it will be very interesting to see just how large the inventory will become. Got a feeling that the inventory number will take some time to increase significantly, because if priced reasonably at the market, they will not last very long, keeping the inventory quite "thin." We'll see.

1-29-07. One more week to the Super Bowl, and one more week to the beginning of our spring real estate seaon. (Where have you heard that before?) And it should be an interesting spring season as well, and one that the waiting homebuyer may not particularly like. As I was updating the Eichler Market Data page this weekend, it becomes rather clear and perhaps ominous what the homebuyer faces this year. 8 new Eichler listings have come on to our marketplace since January 1. Those 8 are located in 5 different cities. Of the 8, 7 are listed at prices above $1,000,000. Of those 8, 4 have already sold with their "Sales Pending." It appears that the late 2005 "pause" in real estate action is about over. We'll see - stand by!

1-22-07. Well the Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts will meet in a couple of weeks at the Super Bowl, and when that happens the spring real estate market usually wakes up. We'll see if that holds true again this year. Lets hope that warmer weather also arrives at about the same time. Prediction, not for the Super Bowl, but for new listings. By this time next month the number of listings will have doubled - or more.

1-15-07. Around here, the focus of activity and attention is not real estate, but keeping warm! I don't recall a time when the temperatures have gotten as low as they are now - for this length of time. And it unfortunately is to continue for several more days. And, so is the real estate doldrum. So much for global warming - at least for awhile.

1-8-07. The real estate doldrums continue. At least the number of listings remained at 5, with the sale of one in Palo Alto, and the new listing in Burlingame. All else remains calm. Once again, the doldrums can be a propicious time for the buyer if the right home is still on the market.

1-2-07. Happy New Year! It appears that we are beginning the year with the fewest number of listings - 5 - that I can ever recall. Not unusual for the first week of the year, but still about as low as it ever gets. I have a feeling this spring will be a "barn-burner."

12-18-06. This will be my last Monday morning update of the year, so I think a couple of comments would be appropriate. 2006 has indeed been an interesting one in the real estate business - a year of two halves. The first six months were essentially a continuation of 2005, with active sellers, and as in 2005, even more active home buyers with a purpose to buy durng that time. The last six month's activity changed, with home buyers becoming spooked, in particular by the national media's attention to the slowing real estate market. Even with interest rates leveling - and even going lower - home buyers still seem to searching for the bottom of the market. While understandable, that approach, and this current window of opportunity may disappear by next February or March in silicon valley, the beginning of our spring. 2007 should be another interesting year in Eichlerdom, and in our silicon valley real estate market. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! See you next year!

12-11-06. Another quiet week in Eichlerdom. If you visit the Eichler Market Market Data page of this site you'll see that the total number of listings during the past 6 months has gone down to 92, reflecting the relative slowing activity compared to last year, and that number is likely going down further during the next couple of months. Real estate activity certainly is cyclical, and this cycle is quite normal as well.

12-4-06. We just went through a very quiet - boring - week as we entered the last month of the year. Don't expect to see it become much different in the weeks ahead, or in the first few weeks of January. Probably a smart time to be a home buyer, and if you think a minimal inventory helps you as a home seller, not a bad time either! Just look at the list above.

11-27-06. It's apparent that a "Mexican stand-off" of sorts, i.e. home buyers not buying and home sellers not budging on price, is occuring here in silicon valley. If that continues, we will probably have to wait until next February or so to see if those decisions were correct or not. Given past history, and the likelihood that spring activity is normally bullish, I'll simply defer to my comments of last week. Your thoughts? Let me know at jditto@eichlerhomes.com.

11-18-06. More of the same as we enter the Thanksgiving week and weekend - the normal beginning of the real estate doldrums for the year. Home buyers are still around, but many are continuing to wait for what they hope will be lower prices. As mentioned before, a questionable strategy akin to trying to buy stocks when prices are falling, and sell when prices are higher. Unlike stock speculation, home purchases are usually made for the long term - at least 5 years or so. And when employing that strategy, once finding the home that really appeals and fits the buyers requirements, it usually makes a lot of sense to buy it - in particular in silicon valley markets, and in particular when interest rates are at or bouncing around historic lows as they are now. Just ask anyone who has purchased a home in 2001 - at the "height" of the real estate bubble around here!

11-13-06 Even though we got down to single digit Eichler inventory numbers last week, a couple of new listings over the weekend brings it back up to 13. That will obviously help the average "Days on the Market" lookers feel better, the folks that have been there for awhile don't particularly care about that. A chilly Monday makes it feel more and more like fall.

11-6-06.Yes indeed, as mentioned last week, the "doldrums" seem to have begun earlier this year. My open house at Pear Avenue in Sunnyvale was relatively active, but we certainly had room for more. It seems that real home buyers, those that are not "just looking", are still waiting, presumably for lower prices. That may or may not be a good strategy. When we are in this type of market, with increasing "Days on the Market" -(it's now 65 in Eichlerdom)- and a small inventory reflecting reduced prices, home sellers are usually in more of a "negotiable mode." After the seasonal doldrums end early next year, the spring real estate season is usually characterized by new and higher prices, as well as a "multiple offer" expectation mode. In my experience, it's always best to be proactive in a more "balanced" market.

10-30-06. We're finishing October on a very calm note, with little happening in the way of new listings or new sales. The "doldrums" of the real estate season may be beginning a bit earlier this year - about a month earlier in fact. You would think that the glorious weather we've having in silicon valley would keep the activity humming, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

10-23-06. Today's inventory of Eichler listings is edging lower, a bit sooner than one would usually expect. You usually see that happening during the holiday seasons, late November, December and early January. If home sellers are realistic with their 2006 pricing, a smaller inventory should help them find a buyer more quickly. It simply appears that the real estate market has become more balanced, where home buyers have more of an opportunity to negotiate their purchase, and informed home sellers have realized that the market has changed from the sellers favor of the last few years.

10-16-06. My goodness, a lot of activity over the weekend. Perhaps home buyers are beginning to realize that the softening home prices are soft enough, in particular given the lower interest rates, and are deciding not to "bottom fish" any further. Probably a good idea, for there are some areas where prices are now beginning to advance!

10-9-06. For those of you that archive or otherwise save my weekly summary commentaries, I'll be removing those weekly comments that are over 2 years old shortly. Interesting, for me at least, to go back - scroll down - and read those of similar periods a year or two ago. If you do so now for this period of time last year, and in 2004 as well, you'll see the differences in our marketplace between 2004 and now, and I think you'll also see that our "return to normalcy" began about a year ago, not recently, as some in the media would have you to believe.

Our "Mexican Standoff" between buyers and sellers still continues, with only a few signs that home sellers are beginning to understand the current market.

10-2-06. Our fall real estate market - Labor Day to Thanksgiving - is less active than past fall seasons. We definitely are in a market in transition. My Eichler Market Data page of this website has now been active for a year, and as you have probably read above - at one time or another - this past 6 months of activity, compared to the activity of those same months in 2005 show a fairly significant decrease in activity. As is mentioned, we saw 148 transactions occuring during this time period last year. This year, that number is 126, or a 15% decrease in transactions. Given the current activity and trend that decrease in activity will in all likelihood continue for a few months. Good for home buyers, not so good for home sellers.

9-25-06. Another open house with many visitors to Pear Ave. in Sunnyvale, and virtually as many compliments about this unusual open but private floor plan. For those of you that couldn't make it, go back to the Featured Listing link on the Current Listings page, and you can "take a tour" of the home.

The media certainly loves to follow real estate. Newspaper columnists are offering all kinds of commentary about the "sellers market" disappearing, the "buyer's market" in full stride, and all kinds of variations in between. If you are a regular reader of my commentary - look at some past offerings - you'll see that I think we are simply in a normal pausing or transitional time, a time when home buyers usually don't have to compete with many multiple offers on a home, and home sellers expect to have their homes on the market for more than a couple of days. Healthier times for all in my view.

9-18-06. It's always great to see old clients, and make some new friends at Open Houses, and such was the case at our Open House at Raleigh Avenue in San Jose yesterday. It seems all were quite impressed with the home and the lovely staging. Someone is going to wind up with quite an outstanding example of an Eichler, tasefully upgraded, and modified with a very functional garage conversion. The fall season is enjoying some very nice weather, and a relatively good number of homes from which to choose. That may not last long!

9-11-06. Little to report on the 5th aniversary of that horrific day in our lives. Onward and upward!

9-5-06. Labor Day has come and gone, so let the real estate buying season begin - hopefully! All the dour commentary you here in the media about the declining real estate market never helps - sometimes a self-fulfilling prophecy - but we'll see. There is no question that "days on the market" have been increasing as of late, in particular in certain zip codes. "Bottom fishers" in the real estate market best take notice, for sometimes that bottom reverses rather quickly.

8-28-06. It's always nice to see newspaper articles written about Eichler homes. A couple of articles, one devoted to "Eichler Update - Helping a midcentury classic fit a 21st century style of living", and another "Preservation - Saving the Eichler aesthetic", appeared in last Saturday's Home & Garden section of the San Francisco Chronicle. I must say that both articles were in marked contrast to the one the Chronicle carried a few weeks ago, (see my 7-31 comments below), and both will I know be of interest to Eichler homeowners and enthusiasts. How many other homes are featured, and written about in various magazines and forms of media? I think you know the answer!

8-21-06. Another very busy Open House on Murray Way in Palo Alto, but as mentioned last week, one Open House does not a market make. With the possible exception of Palo Alto, the market place is still in the throes of a summertime pause. However, it wouldn't surprise me to say in the months ahead that that silicon valley home buyer's market began in the summer of 2006. If that's the case, we'll see a period of time when home sellers will see their days on the market increasing - as it is now, homes being pulled off the market - as is happening now, and home sellers reluctantly or slowly reducing prices - which, in general, really hasn't happened as yet. And - home buyers that are really ready to buy will see this happening, and decide to wait to see just how far prices will go down! Sharp home sellers will react accordingly, and the sharpest of home buyers will do so as well - and the real estate market in silicon valley will continue it's upward climb, with occasional blips - as always.

8-14-06. One Open House does not a market make. While the activity at Sunday's open house on Ferne Ave. was rather active, the overall Eichler marketplace - and the market in general - is still moving slowly. Guess everything moves a bit slower during hot weather. Interesting to me that there have been more canceled or withdrawn listings this year, than at any other time I can recall. That probably is symptomatic of home sellers wishing for the prices they saw occuring earlier in the spring, and finding that those prices just aren't occuring at the moment. Even though a small universe, the average number of "Days on the Market" of 17 of the current Eichler listings is 44 days. The 18th has been on well over 6 months (hard to understand why!), and would skew the numbers if included in the total. Anyway - I think it's a interestsing commentary on the marketplace.

8-7-06. The rather slow summertime activity continues, with 2 new listings posted last week, and 2 sales recorded - and the days on the market continue to grow. And, my goodness, the article in last weeks San Francisco Chronicle that I referred to in last week's summary comments, did indeed attract a huge response from its readers - far and wide. The editor of the Home & Garden section mentioned that it generated "more than 140 letters, and 23,000 hits" on the SF Gate.com website. I'm sure the majority, including mine and the others that didn't make the Letters to the Editor section, were critical of the article's bias toward the features of the Eichler mentioned. I'm still not sure that the editor "gets it", because of the comments in her responding article, "It's only a house" which headlined her response last Saturday. I wonder if she describes other notable and widely recognized achievements the same way, i.e., "...it's only a bridge" - for the Golden Gate, or "...it's only an office building", for the Transamerica Pyramid, or "... it's only a ---(fill in the blanks)". OK - perhaps not perfect analogies, but you get the idea!

7-31-06. The national media is convinced that the real estate market has turned into a buyer's market. It appears that that certainly is the case in those markets where "flipping" was the rule of the day, but from my perspective, that is not yet the case around the silicon valley marketplace. There is no question that homes, including Eichlers, are remaining on the market for a longer period of time before a sales contract occurs. I'm not quite sure that is simply the summer market with fewer home buyers around, or the transition that occurs before a change in the market occurs. We'll know in sometime in September.

Those of you that take the San Francisco Chronicle may have seen the article in the Home Section last Sunday that was not very complimentary to the Eichler. The author, a younger person whose grandmother owned the home prior to her death, seemed to delight in writing about a leaking roof, lack of insulation, and a less than desirable heating system. She rather quickly passed by the observation that "... household upkeep was not a priority" of her grandmother. I think it rather disengenuous to dwell on those deficiencies, given the lack of upkeep. I suppose that's one way to get published if you're a free-lance writer. We'll see if my letter to the editor in respose to the article gets published as well!

7-24-06. Whew! I cannot remember when it has been so hot around here, for so many days in a row. Very, very unusual weather. Global warming will have a new meaning for lots of folks now! Little to comment on. Our summer doldrums continue.

7-17-06. I just read my commentary for last week, and I can in essence repeat the same views for this commentary. I'll do so - "Ditto", and just add that we are now probably entering the period when home buyers, seeing the "pause", think it's best to wait further "to see just how far the prices will go down." We'll re-visit this thought, after Labor Day, to see if this timing strategy makes sense or not. I think you can probably imagine what the history of this approach offers.

7-10-06. The last couple of weeks activity has been in keeping with our summer market. No new listings occured last week, and only a couple of sales occured during that holiday week. Some have been saying that the sellers market is now over, and it's finally now a buyer's market. That's not true, at least from my perspective, for markets simply do not go from "black to white", or "positive to negative" overnight. I do think that our market is either pausing - taking a breath - or transitioning from one to another. Only a handful of listings have recently sold in a matter of a few days - typical in our seller market areas - and the remainder have been around for a month or more. That is indeed a sign of a transitioning market, and summertime is often a time for just that.

6-26-06. Got this quick update in while spending some time with the grandkids. Between the heat, the "going", and trying to keep up the pace, keeping up is taking its toll. I'm going to have to take more time off to recover!!! Much fun though! See 'ya.

6-19-06. The San Jose Mercury News carrys a little graph in the weekend "Real Estate" section of that paper that tracks the number of home sales on a seasonal basis, as well as the number of homes that have sold over the listed price. The area covered is essentially Santa Clara valley, and for the past many months, the number of homes that have sold over list price hovers around 50%. If you look at the data on my Eichler Homes Marketplace page of this site, you will see that the number of Eichlers that have sold during the past 6 months over the listed price amount to some 60%. I think it's obvious that "Eichler market" certainly follows the total market, and in this measurement, slightly exceeds it. It is likely that that excess is caused by the number of Eichler sales in areas such as Palo Alto, or other "hot markets" in Santa Clara county.

6-12-06. Another fun weekend, spending a bit of time with Ned Eichler, and his lovely wife, during his presentation at the Fairbrae Center in Sunnyvale. It was nice to see some past clients, and Eichler owners and enthusiasts, young and old. There are some interesting parallels between the Eichler buyer of the 50's and 60's, and those of today and recent past. And there are some interesting differences as well. Perhaps some fodder for further commentary?! Please let me know.

6-5-06. Last week was a busy one as far as new listings go. The wet spring seems to have pushed listings that normally would have occured a month or so ago into this time frame, with 13 new listing occuring last week. 12 of the 28 current listings are less than 1 week old. We'll see how long these numbers stay in the high 20's, and if the DOM goes up or down.

5-30-06. Well, in real estate lingo, we've finished our active spring season, and now entering the summer season. Long time readers of this site know that,in my estimation at least, the summer is never quite as busy as spring. We'll see if that is the case again this year. While spring 2006 has been an active one, it has not been as busy as last year. The "pause" that is occuring in the national market place, is occuring here as well, and from my point of view, that's healthy.

5-22-06. A fun weekend, with a couple of hours spent up in the Highlands listening to Ned Eichler, and his talk at the rec center - "I Now Sing for my Father." Evidently Joe Eichler was quite a story-teller. I must say that he passed that skill on to his son Ned. A very enjoyable talk, and and a very enjoyable time was had by all. Eichler owners, young and old, heard vignettes about his father and those busy years of the 50's and 60's. As you may know, other talks and book-signings such as this, are to be given by Ned down the peninsula, next month, and later on. One of those talks that was previously scheduled for June 3rd in Palo Alto has been postponed until the fall. The others, one in San Jose on June 4th, and the other in Sunnyvale on June 10th will be held as scheduled. Let me know if you have any questions about times and places.

5-15-06. "Days on the Market" - - - "DOM" in realtor parlance, and a phrase used to evaluate or comment on a given real estate market. The longer the DOM, the "slower" the market, and the more it usually favors the home buyer. And of course the shorter it is, the more it favors the home seller. The DOM in my Eichler market place is inching up little by little. Today, not counting one listing that has been there for almost 6 months - it would distort the average - the average DOM is 25 days. In most areas of the country, and during more "normal" markets, that would be a very healthy number - good for both buyer and seller. Around here, as you all likely know, 25 is about double the number that we have been experiencing for well over a year. So - a move in the direction of "normalcy?" I think so - we'll see.

5-8-06. No question about it this year. The early spring rains - downpours! - really did delay the spring real estate activity. New listings are occuring with the frequency that we always expect - witness the new level of inventory at 25. Sunshine does indeed affect the psyche of most of us.

It's interesting to me how much attention the newer internet sites - those that attempt to value homes - are attracting in national publications. California again seems to be the first area where new approaches and sites begin. I see I made mention of those sites a couple of months ago. Anyway, as mentioned, the more information the better. Just recognize the pluses and minuses of all of it!

5-1-06. Sign of the times - as I updated the Eichler Market Data page last weekend, I had to smile, then empathize with home buyers in this silicon valley marketplace. Even though there were only 6 new listings posted last week, 5 in Palo Alto, 5 of the 6 were priced more than $1,000,000. And in many ways, the spring real estate market is just now beginning to get heated. I think the wet weather has delayed the normal February through April buzz-saw until about now. We'll see if that continues.

4-24-06. Our Eichlers are once again the subject of newspaper or magazine articles - it seems to happen at least two or three times a year. This time, a brief one page article (the last page of the magazine) by Peter Fish, in the Western Wanderings series of Sunset Magazine, May issue, entitled Tomorrow's House Today provides a short but sweet summary of the history of the Eichler, and how the design of these "anti-monster" houses still attract so many folks in our "monster-home" market, so prevalent in many areas of silicon valley today. Yours truly, who was interviewed for the article months ago, was quoted in saying, among other things, how most folks including realtors, didn't particularly like the Eichler home 15 years ago. That was the case, and I suppose that is still true today - but - a sizeable chunk of todays younger home buyers do indeed understand and appreciate the design features of classic Eichlers. I obviously still do!

4-17-06. New listings posted last week - new sales throughout the week and weekend! I thought we were going to build a healthier inventory, but it seems that's not going to be the case. If it ever stops raining we'll probably get down to single digits and stay there!

4-10-06. Well the number of listings has finally begun to grow a bit. While it has seemed rather slow this year, a peek back at my commentary a year ago reveals that the number of active listings are about the same. It just seems slower! 'Twas good to see some old friends and acquaintenaces at our Open House on Dehavilland last week. While the county records indicate the spelling of the street to be as I list, evidently search engines spell it like "Olivia" - DeHavilland, i.e. For those that don't know Saratoga history, yes indeed, both Olivia DeHavilland and her sister, Joanne Fontaine - both Hollwood stars and Oscar winners of the 40's and 50's lived in Saratoga years ago. I happend to meet Olivia while walking across Big Basin Way in downtown Saratoga 15 or 20 years ago. But - that's another story!

4-3-06. The wettest March in our history has, I think, contributed to a very slow spring real estate season. I also think that this pause in activity is the marketplace returning to some form of "normalcy" in Silicon Valley, after years of exuberance. No, not "irrational", but exuberance to be sure. With the possible exception of Palo Alto, the number of "days on the market" continues to grow, and again, with a few exceptions, the number of multiple offers have markedly decreased. If this weather and that market characterization continues, I would think that we will see it have an effect on prices. Stand by.

3-27-06. We had a marvelous sunny Sunday for a delightful Open House on Dehavilland Dr. in Saratoga. It was nice to see all the neighbors that could visit, and meet some new folks as well. As expected, everyone has been amazed to see the transformation of what was a lovely home, into something rather incredible. Good to see you all! Glad you could come by!

3-20-06. Please visit the Featured Listing link on the Current Listings page, and you'll see the early listing information on our new Saratoga listing. Additional pictures and the "virtual tour" will also be appearing later this week as the photography is done and downloaded. It is truly an outstanding home! As mentioned on that page, the home will be open this Sunday, March 26th from 1:30 to 4:30PM. Please drop by - I'd love to show it to you!

On another note, for those of you that take the San Francisco Chronicle, todays Letters to the Editor section contains a letter concerning "Housing Trends", from Avram Goldman, President and COO of Coldwell Banker in San Ramon. You will I think find it quite appropriate, and "right on" in terms of explaining what is happening around here in the real estate market. All of us who are "in the business" find it interesting how the media characterizes the real estate market as a"bursting bubble", when prices increase only 4 or 5%, instead of 12 to 15%, or more. Anyway, perhaps you will find it illuminating. If there is any change going on around here "as we speak", it is only - hopefully - that we are seeing a return to a more "normal", buyer / seller market.

3-13-06. I have just listed the most striking remodeled Eichler that I have ever seen. As you might imagine, I have seen hundreds if not thousands over the past 15 years or so, and while that is a strong statement, it is indeed true. More information will appear here during the weekend, and pictures, video tour, et al next week. I'm anxious for all of you see it, both here and hopefully in person.

3-6-06. The headline in last Saturday's San Jose Mercury News was "Web transforming real estate sales", with a sub-headline of "Sites offer more data that agents do." There is no question that the internet has transformed many businesses, but not many more than residential real estate sales. And for the most part, "that's a good thing!" Several of the sites mentioned in the article certainly do offer the public and web surfers lots of information that once was the purview only of real estate professiionals. While the old saw, "A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing" probably applies here as well, I think having folks know more, not less, always works to the advantage of all.

A couple of thoughts regarding a few of those sites - in particular those that value properties. Some are obviously set up to have you connect with an agent that will help you do so, and others attempt to do it "online", with accuracy within 10% or so. That's obviously a function of "comparable" sales, and information pulled from county records. Often that information needs refinement or updating - sometimes a lot - and among other things, that's what good brokers/agents do. In fact, most folks that have been looking for properties for any length of time can often guess the list price/value of the home within 10%, without the help of any of these sites.

I hope visitors to my website, and certainly my clients think that my site does indeed offer information that you will find no where else, given the focus only on Eichler homes. While my site does not offer the "4-color bells and whistles", links to weather, etc., I am proud of its accuracy, timeliness and ease of navigation. Even though it may show its age via the graphics - it has been up and running since 1995 - it has received a lot of compliments, for which I thank you! I'd love to hear your comments. Please take a moment to let me know your views! - Jerry

2-27-06. Who knows whether or not it's the climate - weather, economic, or emotional - or an idiosyncrasy of 2006, the normaly busy, post Super Bowl market that I often refer to as a hectic time in this business- just isn't! At least at the moment. With a couple of exceptions, listings that have been on the market as long as 2 to 3 months are still there, and new listings are not appearing with the frequency expected. A week or a month "does not a market make", but it may be we that are beginning to see a change from what we've seen in the marketplace for a couple of years. Stand by!

2-20-06. Happy President's Day! I hope you all were able to read Dan Perrigan's article in yesterday's San Francisco Chronicle's Real Estate section - "The Eichler & the Ecstasy." While it mentioned several aspects of "the Eichler" and Joe Eichler that usually find their way into stories about our classic homes, the commentary about Mr. Eichler's progressive civil rights stance in home building and marketing was especially well done. And Ned Eichler's recollections of those early days of their homebuilding attest, as always, to his story telling prowness. Great stuff! Ned, Joe Eichler's son, was President of Eichler Homes during the 1950's.

It was also nice to see the comments of two of my past homebuyer clients, the Cornillons and the Gallis, as well as to see a picture of the Cornillon home. And of course I'm always pleased and proud to see the name Eichler Homes Realty mentioned in these articles!

The article made mention of Ned Eichler's new book, "Fame or Fortune", which has just been published. I have recently been able to give Ned a hand in scheduling talks about the book in a presentation he calls "I Now Sing for my Father". Those talks will be occuring this May and June, and I'll be writing about the time and places later. Ned is as mentioned quite a "story teller", and I know lots of folks, Eichler owners and others, will look forward to listening to more of them.

2-12-06. As mentioned during the week last week, the editors of the San Francisco Chronicle decided to run an article about Online Lending last Sunday, as opposed to the story about Eichler homes and homeowners - for whatever reason. An interesting article, although speaking from experience, it's always been very helpful and usually comfortable for my home buyer clients to put a face with a name with their lender or their represenative. The same I might add goes for real estate brokers! Anyway, I presume the article will appear next Sunday.

Spring has not yet sprung in our marketplace. A couple of new listings, nicely prepared, have come and gone quickly, but several others are still there. It will be an interesting spring.

2-6-06. The Super Bowl is over - let the real estate games begin! If you have been checking the Eichler Market Data page of this site, you'll note that the number of Active, Pending and Sold listings have reached the 80's level, down from approximately 150 several months ago. You will likely see that number beginning to increase as we go through this month and into the warmer spring.

The San Francisco Chronicle will be carrying an article about Eichler homes and homeowners next Sunday, the 12th. I'm not sure what the thrust will be at the moment, but as always, the attention given to the "Eichler" is always of interest.

I'm advised now that the article will be the "cover article", on the Chronicle's Real Estate section - this Sunday the 12th, or the following Sunday, the 19th.

1-30-06. While the magic moment of the Super Bowl is a week away, it would appear that the market is beginning to set its tone a bit earlier than usual. The number of new listings, 13 at the moment is about twice as high as has been the case in prior years. Home sellers are evidently eager to get the ball rolling. However, the listings are beginning to age a bit - with more than half of the listings being there for over 3 weeks, or being re-listed from prior months. It should be an interesting spring.

1-23-06. The NFL playoffs are over and the Super Bowl is but 2 weeks away. And the real estate market is beginning to make rumblings that its spring season will begin shortly. New listings appear to be coming on a bit earlier and the inventory is beginning to build, since home buyers seem not ready to get their feet wet yet. Prices of new listings are reflecting a continuation of where we left off last year. At least that is an early read in the Eichler marketplace - really too early to have much predictive value.

1-16-06.A chilly holiday in a chilly real estate market. 5 of the 7 current active listings - the oldest - have been on the market from 35 to 115 days - an average of 65 days. I would say that is a commentary on the current value / price relationship that is turning favorable to home buyers. We'll see if that continues after the market really begins its active spring market - in about a month.

1-9-06. We're a few weeks away from Super Bowl Sunday, and if seasonality in this business still prevails - I believe that it does - a few weeks away from the beginning of the active Spring real estate season. Keep tuned in!

1-3-06. Holidays are great, but it's always nice to get back business isn't it? It least it is for me. The newspapers are full of commentary about the real estate market for last year and 2006. The prevailing prediction among many industry economists, mortgage bankers, and the realtor community, is that the strong market of 2005 will be a gradually slowing market for 2006, albeit still strong by historical standards. While those sentiments are offered on a national view, I think we will experience much the same here in Silicon Valley. Home seller expectations of "umpteen" percentage point increases over 2005, may have to expect those in the 5 to 10% variety in 2006.

12-26-05. Well, the year is about to come to a close. 2005 was very much like 2004 in the Eichler real estate business, and we'll soon see how 2006 starts off. Don't expect much to happen during January - the spring season around here really begins in February, as long time viewers have heard repeatedly. Have a fun week and a "great 2006! Perhaps I can meet and help you next year!

12-19-05. As I said about this time a year ago, it's the time of year for family and friends, and less to real estate. Interesting - if you have a moment, take a peek at my comments here about this time last year. Remarkable similarities!

Have a week full of joy, and a very merry Christmas!

12-12-05. I've been out of town for about a week - without email - (what a bummer!) so little to report. Actually there has been little to report anyway, as you may have followed during the week. While not "emailable", I was able to keep track of activity and post it on the site. Keeping you informed - - - - -!

12-5-05. While I wouldn't characterize it as busy, the market is acting a bit busier than normal for this time of year. Maybe just a brief blip - we'll see. The Eichler Market Data page of this site certainly reflects the typical seasonal slowing. The 6 month activity of all sales statuses is about 20% off its September high. It will be interesting to see just where that bottoms out - likely in February or March of next year.

11-28-05. Brr-rr! What a change in weather! From the 70's and 80's a week or so ago, to the 40's and 50's. Really can't complain about our marvelous weather though - we're blessed. The chill still hasn't had much effect on our market. While we haven't had much in the way of sales happening, a couple of new listings just occured just after Thanksgiving. Days on the market are creeping up - no big surprise if that continues. Hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday!

11-21-05. We're almost at the time when things normally slow down in this business - Thanksgiving - and last weeks activity of 1 new listing and 2 sales seem to presage just that. The "slower time", i.e. Thanksgiving to Super Bowl Sunday, has been not so hot for home sellers, but often a good time for home buyers to finally score! Even though the inventory of homes usually becomes smaller and smaller, those homes that come onto the market often remain there longer - sometimes much longer.

Have a very Happy Thanksgiving holiday!.

11-14-05. My offerings in this weekly summary last year, on 11-15-04, contained some statements from the Chief Economist of the California Association of Realtors. Her comments, during the then very low inventory and lower interest rates, indicated her projection of a strong finish to the year (2004) even though "the pace always slows while the public takes a break for the holidays." She then offered that 2005 would "mimic" 2004, at a slightly slower pace, and that several other economists forecasted a market heating up in 2006 and 2007 to the "pre-dot-com" level. She also projected beyond 2007 - but as I indicated then, the farther out these projections go, the less accurate they usually are.

So,was she right about 2005? She sure was - in fact the pace exceeded her projections. We'll have to wait about 3 months -until February 2006 - to see if that "heating up" projection materializes.

11-7-05. The "pause" continues and undoubtedly will continue for the balance of the year. New listings will certainly continue to appear and the ones that show well and are priced well - reflective of the current market - will likely go rather fast anyway. My listing in Foster City was a good example of that! There are a good many home buyers still out there. Hopefully the increase in mortgage interest rates won't offset any price moderation that occurs for them during this relatively slower market.

10-31-05. Well, we're finishing off the month of October is a rather calm way, much the way it was a week ago. Very little happened last week in the way of new listings or sales. Yesterday however, started the week on a high note. As always, it is always great to meet new folks, and renew acquaintenances with past clients at my Sunday Open Houses. Yesterday's Open at Sanderling St. in Foster City was a huge success, with many neighbors of course, some old friends and clients, and quite a few new folks dropping by to say hello, and see how nice the Burgess Eichler was. The Foster City Eichlers, virtually all of Claude Oakland design, are, as many of you know, nestled among the many other homes in that area in a rather random fashion. Many Eichler "enclaves" in other communities are located all together in a specific development. Not so in Foster City - they're spread all around, not in a contiguous fashion. Eichlers on the Stanford campus grounds are placed the same way.

Here's to probably the last rather active month of the year in real estate- November. Happy Halloween!

10-24-05. There is absolutely no question about it. The real estate market around here is changing - pausing before the next leg at the very least - from the rather hectic if not insane market of 2005. 90+% percent of the homes that were on the market when I was out of the office for a week or so, were still there when I returned. If you wish to see another example of the changing market, just look at the Cupertino page of this site. Three listings - three reduced prices. So - everyone, including folks thinking of selling their homes will benefit from a more normal market. It's about time.

Please take a look at our new listing in Foster City. A lovely example of retaining the original elements of Eichler architecture, but upgrading those areas that benefit from new technology.

10-19-05.Just a quick note after my trip. Little activity in 8 days and a resultant "DOM" that is increasing surely says that we are transitioning into more of a normal market. For the record, the average days on the market as of today - excluding one listing that has been on for 155 days - is 29.8 days - a growing increase. Finally.

10-11-05. Even though October has continued to be a busy fall month, I and realtor associates of mine are beginning to see and feel a "transition" occuring in the market place. That transition or softening usually occurs a bit later in the the fall, usually around Thanksgiving. At this point, the transition "translates" into homes staying on the market a bit longer, or homes that are stellar from every point of view are receiving only a couple of offers, not 10 or 12. In either event, if true, its a positive sign for home buyers.

I will be out of the office until the 19th, so there will be no daily updates posted, or Eichler Market Data update next weekend. "See you" in a week or so.

10-3-05. I can't recall the time when the real estate market had so much lay press, nationally and locally. Of course the bulk of the articles discuss the speculation that has occured in several locales, notably Florida, in particular Miami, and Las Vegas. Those articles then segway into "the bubble", or "bubblettes" more accurately. If you've been reading this summary for any length of time you know my feelings about any "bubblette" occuring around here. While home buyers would like to think that is or will be the case, postponeing any purchase around here because of those expectations is virtually like trying to time individual stocks in the stock market. Most of the folks that try that don't succeed either.

9-26-05. As expected, the inventory of Eichlers has increased nicely since the beginning of the month. We started out the month with 8, and of course it has more than doubled. While the "universe" is really too small do draw definitive conclusions, "DOM" or Days on the Market before a sale occurs is definitely increasing. If that continues as new listings continue, the pendulum should begin to swing back towards the home buyer. We'll see.

9-20-05. I've been off for a few days, but upon return I see that the new fall listings continue to increase. It seems to never fail - Labor Day comes and so do the new listings after the slower summer season. You've heard this from me before, but summer is definitely not the active season in real estate. Interesting - aside from a couple of areas in the valley, listings are staying around a bit longer. We'll see if this portends a change in buyer attitude.

9-13-05. The fall real estate season has indeed begun, and we advance from the single digit listing numbers of late summer. If you go back and read my commentary of approximately 1 year ago, you will find the old axiom, "... the more things change, the more they stay the same" to be true. The past 12 months have been and continue to be a profitable time for home sellers. Unfortunately for home buyers, there is nothing on the horizon that says it will be any different during the next 12 months.

9-5-05. Labor Day has arrived - what a week! The fall real estate season begins.

8-29-05. Well, Labor Day is around the corner, so we'll soon see if it marks the beginning of a busier real estate market. It usually does. The Eichler Market Data page is again up and running with current data posted as of last Saturday. The graphic will follow.

8-22-05. Much the same as last week, with the summer doldrums continuing. The news media is really stuck on the real estate bubble isn't it. It seems rather old hat to us in silicon valley, but obviously not to middle America. Always remember, like politics, real estate is local, and around here, with virtually countless mico-markets, it is very local.

8-15-05. And the relative doldrums of the silicon valley real estate market continues. I say relative, because this summer has been more active than most. It's always nice to see publications carry articles on the Eichler home, or in some favorable way make mention of what Joe Eichler did. For example, the "Glide-house" of architect Michelle Kaufmann that is on exhibit at the Sunset Magazine headquarters in Menlo Park prompted an article in the Mercury News, and elsewhere, that makes reference to the Eichler. The Sunset home editor was quoted in saying, "This place to me feels revolutionary, much like the early Eichler homes must have seemed in their day." The August 2005 of Sunset Magazine also features this home.

Also, the August/September 2005 issue of "Lifescapes Magazine" includes an article on a very tastefully "re-furbished" Eichler in Southern California. The article was entitled, "Melding Simplicity with Timelessness." Some lovely photographs accompanied the article. I can't help but smile. I can remember well - many years ago - when my interest in contemporary architecture and the Eichler in particular was rather poo-pooed, in particular by the real estate community when I started this company. Well - pure and simple, great design is simply timeless, and there indeed are folks that appreciate it.

8-8-05. I missed the single digits by a week, but it's now here. We'll see if it stays that way. Some of you may have seen the recent article in the WSJ by Neil Barsky entitled "What Housing Bubble?" A worthwhile read, and to quickly summarize, it discussed 3 current myths about the real estate market: 1- Too much capacity (new building), 2- Risky mortgage products, and 3- Speculators are driving home prices. Those myths are obviously a national view, which as I've mentioned before, doesn't work well on a local level. In Mr. Barsky's opinion, they don't work well nationally either. Anyway, it's interesting that the talk of such a bubble seems to be off the front pages lately - even disappearing in many quarter.

8-1-05. Well we didn't hit the single digits yet, but we're trying to. It was a 10 or 11 all week. For those of you that take the San Francisco Chronicle, the Magazine section of yesterdays Sunday paper contained another well done article on the Eichler home by Zahid Sardar, with some lovely photographs. Those photos really show how relatively inexpensive it is to "remodel" an Eichler - bringing it back to its almost original condition - and how well tasteful appointments and furniture of classic design, or more recent contemporary design work so well in the home. Many of my past clients have looked and found homes with that potential. These photos illustrate just why they did quite well.

7-25-05. I wouldn't be surprised if we begin to show listings going down to single digits. Even though we see about half of the current number - 12 - with increasing days on the market (over a month), this market is active enough to generate sales on those in time, and on the others more quickly. It really is warming up - temperature wise!

7-18-05. The warm weather slows things up a bit, as usual, and listings stay around a bit longer with the exception of the the "exceptional" ones, but activity still continues. It appears that my comments of last week could be repeated this week. Tabulating the Eichler Market Data page gives some interesting insight into the seasonality of this market place. If you look at the early weeks of the period being covered this week, you'll see the reason why the total number of listings will continue to grow until about the end of this month. When the last couple of months of a rolling 6 month period include December and January - with little activity - the total number should peak.

7-11-05. It appears that the relative frenzy that accompanied the spring selling season has abated, and we're into the more normal summer market. Unless the property is outstanding in all respects, in particular location, it is staying around awhile longer with the number of days on the market increasing. This climate will normally lead to a softening of prices. We'll see. It seems we're hearing less talk about "the bubble", and I think rightly so. Enjoy the warm weather!

7-5-05.The long weekend was a busy one for home buyers, with 3 of the listings sold, but as is usually the case, no new listings were posted. It is interesting that many if not most folks think of summer as a busy time in the real estate business, but it usually is not. Too much else going on, including vacations, and those that are moving to find new school districts have already made that move. The Eichler Market Data page now shows 122 homes in the Active, Pending and Sold statuses. That number will likely continue to grow for 3 or 4 more weeks, then begin to decline as we enter the slowest 6 months of the real estate market. That's the time that usually benefit home buyers. We'll see if that happens this year!

6-27-05 It does appear that we are in the seasonal transition time - from a hectic spring to a less hectic summer. While certain new listings still go quickly, many listings are hanging around longer, and a few even undergo a price reduction or withdrawal from the market. However, as long as the mortgage interest rates remain at this 40+ year historical low, the activity seems to continue at a level a bit higher than summer "normal".

6-20-05. There is not much new to comment on this week as we approach the "first day of summer. I know we all are looking forward to some warm days and sunshine. "Spoken as a true Californian, Ditto!"

6-13-05. Pardon the delay in getting the Eichler Market Summary updated and up and running. Computer operator error - namely me - but it's all fixed now. We're now up to 105 on that list. The national media seems fixated with the real estate "bubble" doesn't it. While home prices have indeed advanced nicely during the recent past, the speculative activity in Florida and Las Vegas really has gotten their attention. As you've undoubtedly heard by now, if you are not a speculator - but a home buyer - not investor/speculator, there is little to be concerned about, in particular in silicon valley. Remember, average Eichler prices that fell during the 2000 "dot-com" bubble - around 10-15% - made up their ground in a couple of years. Now, they are considerably higher. God Bless Silicon Valley!

6-6-05. We wound up what I think is the busiest time of the real estate year - February through May - with a good week of activity. We'll see if that view holds up throughout the summer. Speaking of that, I plan to delete these summary comments for the period prior to these last 12 months. For those of you that retain them - (thank you, that's a compliment) - if you haven't already transfered or printed those months, please do so before next weekend. They'll be gone after that. Have a good week and enjoy the warmer weather!

5-31-05. Hope you had a nice holiday! Well, we're closing out a busy month by reducing that "healthy inventory" of Eichlers by about 50% from a couple of weeks ago. Even though the frenzy has definitely abated, the nice well priced homes still find their buyers quickly. While the low interest rates have always been thought of as an impetus of this seller's market, without question, being able to secure a 30 fixed mortgage around 5.3% is now a major driving force. I hope the folks that found an interest only loan attractive at a lesser percentage, really look at the current fixed rates. They're approaching the rates that returning WWII vets were offered with their GI Loans! And that's when the early Eichlers were priced around $9,000!

5-23-05. The inventory took a healthy jump during the past week, virtually doubling from a couple of weeks ago. This seems to happen often during the last weeks of spring. I suppose that folks that have been thinking of selling their home have seen some rather dramatic price increases, and decide to join the fray. In the past, this inventory increase during the late spring cycle has usually signaled a moderation of buying frenzy, and ultimately prices. We'll see if that happens this time. That healthy inventory increase of 14 homes brought the total homes shown on the Eichler Market Data page to 93. It will be into the 100's before a cyclical peak occurs.

5-16-05. Much the same kind of activity last week as the week before. 4 or 5 new listings, and the same number of sales. We're staying at roughly 15 listings for several weeks now. Local and national news reporters keep the commentary coming about the overheated real estate market. When you see all the ads appearing in local newspapers promoting the concept of making a quick fortune with "no money down", be careful! Remember, like politics, real estate is very, very local. What may work in certain areas of the country, may not work in others. The same goes for "market conditions". Booms, busts or bubbles in one area - city, county, state or regional area - won't necessarily apply to your or other areas.

5-9-05. Maybe the rain will really end this week. When you've lived in California as long as I have, this late spring and late rain gets to you. Anyway, there's little new on which to comment. The spring market still has a few weeks to go, and buyers and sellers are still taking advantage of this busy season. A bit fewer sales occured last week -6-, and even fewer - 5- sales occured. One week does not make a market or trend!

5-2-05. Another busy week in the spring real estate market. 7 or 8 new listings appeared and another 7 or 8 were sold. A very typical "DOM" for those that were sold. Around 10 to 12 "days on the market", really means a rather instant sale. Here's why. An agent or broker puts the home on the multiple listing service, "day zero", usually 2 or 3 days before real estate agents/brokers tour the property. In todays market, sellers wish to have the home exposed to the public - and more potential buyers with Open Houses - which takes another 2 or 3 days (sometimes more). Offers, and again, today there are usually more than 1, are heard 2 or 3 days later, giving time for the buyers and their agents to put one together and present it to the seller. It may be accepted then, or a bit later if counter-offers are appropriate, and then - the agent/broker notifies the MLS of the sale. As you can see, all of that takes around 10 days - plus or minus a couple - for a typical "instant sale".

4-25-05. I still see the plateau forming - selectively. You've recently seen a few price reductions in the Eichler marketplace, and in the market in general. As a rule, those reductions may not have happened a couple of months ago. But now, as is the case in "normal" markets, homes that suffer from poor location, busy streets, or of course prices that worked earlier in the spring, are not being snapped up as they once were. Homes that do not suffer from any of those weaknesses still enjoy a lot of interest - and usually offers.

4-18-05. Well the beat goes on, but the DOM (days on the market) begins to inch up, bringing the total listings up to 17, the highest in several months. It may well be that the market in general is approaching a plateau - taking a breather - and that would be quite healthy for everybody, in particular for home buyers. There's nothing like consolidating gains to establish prices for home sellers and buyers.

4-11-05. My oh my, and the beat goes on. During my update of the Eichler Market Data page last weekend, I couldn't help but shake my head - on behalf of Eichler home buyers! 4 of the 6 new Eichler listed last week were priced in excess of $1,000,000, and to top that off, one of the pending sales that was listed for $1,195,000, actually sold for $1,425,000. On a different note, those of you living or interested in an Eichler designed by Jones and Emmons will find the current May 2005 issue of Architectural Digest interesting. It features a cover and story of a home designed by A. Quincy Jones for the screen legend Gary Cooper. Located in the Holmby Hills area of Los Angeles, the home features the clean lines, expanse of glass and open space that Mr. Jones incorporated in his designs for Mr. Eichler.

4-4-05. Last week was simply more of the same. Hard to "read any tea leaves" about the market other than it continues on its spring pace. There are no signs that homebuyers are slowing down because of the rising interest rates. And there are no signs that home sellers are coming onto the market timidly. While the home search services I subscribe to indicate list price reductions from time to time, no Eichler list prices have been reduced this year in order to affect a sale.

3-28-05. Sure wish it would stop raining! While its way to early to project a change, I see a couple of things happening in our marketplace. Listings are staying around a bit longer - more "days on the market" (DOM) than we've been experiencing lately, and even though not in the Eichler marketplace, some listings are having price reductions occur. Again, \ while certainly early, and perhaps just a "blip" it would be nice for homebuyers to see a bit of a return to "normalcy", if that ever occurs. My thanks it those of you commenting on the new Eichler Market Data page. It is being well received. You'll note I updated it over the weekend, with several Pending and Sold properties updated.Have a great week!

3-21-05. If you have not as yet gone to the Eichler Market Data link, I would encourage you to do so before you leave my site. The 36 Pending or Sold listings that you will find there esssentially represent the slowest 6 months of sale activity that we'll have all year. Under "normal" conditions, if we ever have that, it would not be unusual to see a 6 month period from say, February to July incorporating double that amount of sales activity. Will advancing prices slow down the number of sales? We'll just have to wait to see.

3-14-05. Whether it's the sunshine, warmer weather or whatever, new listings began to appear in our marketplace. Thank goodness. We'll hope for more of the same. An economist and financial advisor, whose opinions I respect, recently made an interesting comment about our silicon valley real estate market. He likens it to a secular, or long term bull market in equities. Evidence has always pointed to advancing prices-a "bull market"- with occasional corrections along the way. Our "trophy" area, along with about 4 others in the country, enjoy that favorable description. If true, and in my experience it is, both home buyers and home sellers benefit.

3-7-05. While the Eichler inventory has increased dramatically, percentage wise i.e., from 3 to 5 - it is still at all time lows. Hopefully the lack of rain and some continuing sunshine will prompt sellers to get going and put it on the market! For those of you who are relatively new to my site, and the numbers I refer to, there have been times during the past 12-13 years that the Eichler inventory has been in the 30's during the busy time of the year - like now! Times certainly change, and the obvious investment character of real estate versus common stocks, in addition to interest rates, et al, have really been a major impetus to the change.

2-28-05. We're closing out the month with a remarkably low inventory - the lowest I've seen this time of year in over 13 years. One home in Palo Alto, and 3 condominiums constitute our Eichler inventory! That is in a geographic area of about 7000 Eichler homes! The lack of inventory of homes in general is of course a major contributor to rising prices, and with interest rates still at historic lows, the Seller market continues.

2-21-05. Happy Presidents Day! Even though we had a relatively wet weekend, our Open House at Wright Place in Palo Alto was bulging with visitors on both Saturday and Sunday. A continuing sign of home buyer interest in Silicon Valley. And - a continuing sign of home buyers being tuned in, for many asked the questions, "When are you looking at offers, and do you have a disclosure package?" There's no question. It is tough being a home buyer around here, in particular if you are a first time homebuyer. But, believe me, while it is quite difficult now, it has been that way for many, many years - actually decades. Not much of a consolation, but it is true.

2-14-05. And it does appear that the games are beginning. Activity over the weekend included both sales and several new listings. Let's hope that the inventory of Eichlers begins to provide homebuyers with a good selection. Prices will likely be on the upswing as "spring" begins - it always seems to set the stage for the year.

2-7-05. The Super Bowl is over - "now let the real estate games begin!" It certainly seems like it will very shortly. Newspaper articles appearing in the San Jose Mercury News last Thursday, and in yesterday's San Francisco Chronicle may give further impetus (if needed!) to home sellers in silicon valley, and encapsulate the difficulties in being a home buyer around here. "You don't get much for a million bucks in Silicon Valley" was the headline of the Merc's article, and the Chronicle's article was what a million bucks will buy in areas other than our bay area. Let's just hope that an increasing inventory of all homes, and Eichlers in particular will begin to bring some sense of normalcy to our marketplace. Interestingly enough, the "million bucks" reference is quite meaningful for Eichler enthusiasts as well. As of today, of the 6 Eichlers currently on the market, 4 of them are priced over $1,000,000, and of the 2 that aren't, 1 will likely sell for more than that amount, and the other may indeed approach or exceed that mark as well. This spring should be very, very interesting!

1-31-05.The rain has stopped, at least for a while, we've come to the close of the month of January, and the pace of real estate activity is beginning to pick up. New listings are lasting about a week to 10 days - the length of time for an open house, weekend ads, listening a evaluating offers - and bingo, they're sold. The same old song continues to be sung. Home sellers continue to enjoy their good fortune, home buyers are having to spend one. But - that simply is the silicon valley marketplace, with no apparent change in the offing.

1-24-05. The "low hum of activity" continues as we get closer to the "official" beginning of the real estate year around here. We'll likely see that continuing for the next couple of weeks as we ramp up to a more active time. The silicon valley marketplace, Eichlers included, will probably continue the pace that ended last year, for there is seemingly nothing happening to change that. Interest rates continue to be at record low rates, and even though you hear that they will be rising - and likely will to a degree - the mortgage interest rates are still unbeliveably low, at 40 year old levels and beyond. And the inventory, while beginning to increase is very, very thin. From my perspective, different Eichler communities still have different levels of interest from home buyers, but all of the areas certainly have enough to make home sellers pretty happy.

1-18-05. A low hum of activity continues on this Martin Luther King holiday, with it all coming during the latter part of the week. It is - the market - getting ready though. I can tell by the number of all homes that are new listings, that are part of the "Broker's Open House" tour schedule as they are first listed. Brr-rr-r! Sure is cold around here this January.

1-10-05. Another relatively slow week, but 1 pending sale and a couple of new listings provided a bit of a spark, wet weather or not. It is perhaps a bit odd to mark an event or period by Super Bowl Sunday, nevertheless, that event, always in late January or early February, seems to be the launch for the busy spring real estate season. If the listings begin to occur in number before then - early February this year - that might fortell an even busier spring for us.

1-3-05. Happy New Year! We begin the year in much the same mode as we left 2004 - as expected. If all holds as in the past, we will stay in this relatively quiet mode for the next few weeks. Over the weekend, the real estate sections of our local newspapers summarized the very active year that we just finished - saying much the same thing that my weekly updates have been saying for some time. My forecast for 2005? Very much like 2004.

12-27-04. Trust your Christmas holiday was a joyous one! This week between Christmas and New Years will be a slow one in the real estate business - but I'll keep watching as usual. Those of you that take the SF Chronicle likely saw the article fronting the Real Estate Section discussing our market during 2004. I'll abstract a couple of thoughts/paragraphs. "During the late spring and early summer, those who plunked "For Sale" signs on their front lawns enjoyed a close facsimilie of the 2000 frenzy, with all-out bidding wars and many contingency-free offers. But it was a tough year for first time buyers. Amid concerns about rising interest rates and a flagging economy, economists in 2003 had speculated that the U.S. and Bay Area housing markets would sag in 2004. Instead, the nine-county region posted its best year ever, sailing past the records of 2003 and the halcyon days of the Internet boom." Indeed that was the case for the bulk of the year, and certainly the case for the Eichler home market.

Here's to another active year in 2005. All signs seem to point in that direction!

12-20-04. More of the same - not unexpectedly. 'Tis the time of year when we all devote more time to family and friends, and the spirit of the season, and less to real estate - as it should be! Have a wonderful week, and a glorious Holiday!

12-13-04. December activity inches along as per usual. A bit of activity but not much. Yesterdays San Francisco Chronicle carried an extensive article about bay area real estate. If you didn't see it you may wish to pick it up - at a newstand or on the web. Three well know personalities/experts in the field give you their views on what has and likely will be happening in the future. In general, it simply is more of the same - good for home owners, and more impetus for home renters to become home owners. Easier said than done around here! Stay warm.

12-6-04. Chilly weather around here, and an understandable chill slowing the market. It's just the time of year! A couple of listings and a couple of sales, and the inventory remains at an all time low. This time of year gives real estate agents and brokers a time to "chill out", and that's exactly what's happening!

11-29-04. We're almost in December, and the listing activity - inventory - really reflects that. Take a minute to scroll down and review my Monday commentary of a year ago. As you'll see, we were enjoying an active market right up to Thanksgiving, nonetheless, the inventory of Eichlers started the month of December at around a dozen, far different than we have today. And for those of you that monitor the price levels, you probably won't be surprised to hear that the prices are about 15 to 20% higher than they were then. On and on it goes!

11-22-04. Well we've come off the almost zero inventory with some lovely new listings. It will be interesting to see just how long they hang around. My prediction - not long. A lovely fall real estate season, brisk and relatively free of rain is about to end with our Thanksgiving holiday. We'll see if the normally slow winter season - Thanksgiving to Super Bowl Sunday -follows the traditional pattern.

11-15-04. The Chief Economist and VP of the California Association of Realtors spoke here recently, and a few of her comments will likely be of interest to you. As she mentioned, "We can expect a strong finish to this year. Inventory is low (I'll say!), and the buyers are still out there with low interest rate loans in their pockets. As in former years, the market will slow its pace down while the public takes a break for the holidays. The coming year will mimic this year but at a slightly slower pace. According to several other economists, the market will heat up again to the pre-dot-com level in the years 2006 and 2007, with the market turning in 2008 or 2009. CAR's Chief Economist doesn't believe the market will "cool off" until 2012, acknowledging that that may a bit too optomistic. It seems all do agree that we are in for a ride for the next couple of years."

While it is the economists job to make predictions, the farther out they go, the less accurate those predictiions. Suffice to say that near term, our bay area market is and likely will continue to be a busy, busy area in real estate transactions.

11-8-04. Well, if there ever was a time to set records, this had to be the time. There has never - repeat never, at least since 1992 - been a time when the Eichler inventory has been lower than 3 homes in the market area I serve, San Jose to Burlingame. Now there are 2. This has to be a commentary, in and of itself, about the silicon valley real estate market, interest rates, state of the economy, and more. I have a sneaking hunch that next springs market will be a barn burner of historical proportions. Great if you're a seller - not so great if you haven't found one first!

11-1-04. And the diminishing inventory continues. To give you some perspective, I keep careful track and report on some 9000 Eichler homes in my marketing area - Burlingame to San Jose. And as of today, there are only 5 of those 9000 on the market. You do the math! 'Tis a great time to be a seller - not so great if you are trying to buy one. Here's a plug for Eichler Homes Realty - my clients bought one this weekend!

10-25-04. Well we are in single digits inventory shape as of the moment, and it will likely continue that way for awhile. Two ways to look at that. A good time for home sellers, for there are fewer homes from which to choose, but it can also be a good time for home buyers, for homes can languish on the market during the upcoming winter real estate season.

10-18-04. The rains have come, at least in a small way, but the fall selling season still rolls along. We're almost down to single digits again. Incredible interest rates and loan packages, and a very thin home inventory still keeps the home seller in a very good position.